The Hi-Def DVD battle between Red vs. Blue here in 2007, has heated up in ways that we would have never of expected. HD-DVD was somewhat left for dead beginning to mid-year with minimal releases and BD release after release was pounding away. Then in September things really took a turn to restore balance in this war. That had to do with the Paramount deal which gave exclusive rights to some of their titles for 18 months. Then 2 months later, Wal-Mart creates buzz with the sale of the A2 at $98, with Best Buy, CC, and Fry’s following………..but then also the A3, the latest 3rd gen HD-DVD player from Toshiba was found for as low as $199 with 10 free movies.
With so much speculation and rumors circulating with every turn, we all continue to wonder if this 2 horse race will turn to just 1 horse in the near future. Being an early adopter of both formats, it makes me format neutral as I own a PS3, A2, and A3 which allows me to enjoy movies on both. I wanted to share my take on this battle and where both formats could be heading in the future and who I think is going to be the winner.
PS3 the Tool to Launch BD!
This battle is Sony’s to lose with the latest onslaught by the HD-DVD camp. Sony came barging out the door with its PS3 hoping that BluRay would be the eventual winner due to the PS3 since it’s a gaming/multimedia system that allowed gamers to play Hidef DVD’s. Where they were wrong is that even though the PS3 plays Hidef movies, the attachment rate wasn’t what they had expected. Sony went about all this the wrong way imo, not only have they done damage to the Playstation name with the PS3, but they have also hurt themselves with the price and is one reason they are still lagging behind in the console wars. This leads me to the Hidef DVD arena, between Sony and Toshiba.
Granted Sony has some big backers such as FOX, Disney, STARZ, Lionsgate, etc. under their umbrella, there have been way too many releases that have been underwhelming to warrant the higher price tag of the discs their printed on. Not only myself, but many in the communities feel like we are being setup for a double/triple dipping affair with BluRay titles down the road. I like to use many of the FOX and STARZ releases as a perfect example. FOX released way too many of their first titles as either completely bare bones discs or discs with 1 or 2 features when their SD-DVD counterparts are loaded with content. I like my bonus features/content as much as the next guy, but when it comes down to charging $34.99/$39.99 MSRP for these discs is ridiculous. Granted some of us smart online buyers can get these discs for $24.99 or lower at times, I feel ripped off even at that point. One thing is that the FOX releases that were bare bones did have good PQ to give them that, but STARZ on the other hand released 4 horror movies this past October. Not only did they embarrass themselves, but they angered many people in the process by the lack of features and poor PQ. All excuses aside, STARZ should take a look at Dog Day Afternoon and The Warriors, movies made in the 70’s on how to do HD transfers.
Price plays a role!
Price has been another factor with BluRay. Up until recently, you couldn’t get a BD player for under $500. That all changed with the PS3 coming in at $399 with their latest price drop. Sony doesn’t understand that people don’t want to spend that much on unproven technology when only 20% of the market owns HDTV’s. How long before they could get their low-line stand alone player to $98 or $199 type of deal? Sony has done nothing but hurt Sony here in the end. This is one area that I see doing tremendous damage to BluRay, it’s that their stand alone players equals to nothing spectacular number-wise when compared to stand alone HD-DVD player sales. It baffles me that they put all their eggs in one basket for BluRay, the PS3 thinking that it would launch this new format like the PS2 helped push along the DVD technology. There was a difference then, the PS2 came out at $299 and not $599/$499 respectively which made many cringe.
Toshiba was smart with their technology from the beginning where they were half the price of BD on their hardware and the movies were a bit cheaper on some titles, except for the combo discs. This has allowed them to build this onslaught of pushing last gen hardware at rock bottom prices with deals like get anywhere from 6-10 movies for free. Yes, they might be losing some money here, but they need to spend money to make money in the long run. What better place to do this through Wal-Mart, which so many people shop at and look at as a chain that you can get product at excellent prices. My theory here is that the Chinese DVD player for under $200 diversion was just that, a diversion for Toshiba to build-up stock on A2’s that weren’t selling at the $199-$249 price point and then usher this Holiday campaign of market entry players. It worked like wildfire spreading allowing many that were on the fence to finally jump on and even more it made those that wanted an A2, but missed out go grab an A3.
Rumors circulating today is that Wal-Mart has one more batch left of A2’s to release, either next week’s Friday special or something they are holding off on for Black Friday. If they have one more batch, it will do considerable damage to BluRay and I don’t care how anyone looks at this. My opinion, Toshiba should start manufacturing a cheaper version of the A2 and even A3, selling it around $99 - $139 price point. This will for sure help them move forward even faster at this point.
Paramount Deal Shakes the industry!
The Paramount deal has been a big factor with the release of Transformers, but we will see what else Paramount has up their sleeve for releases. Time will only tell with 16 months of HD-DVD exclusive contract left with what they are going to release, but next week Shrek the Third is releasing. With Shrek the Third releasing, a big campaign is going to be ushered, could this be the movie to break records on HD-DVD?
Software makes a big deal in this war, but I don’t think it is the key or the answer yet. Both formats are holding their own with releases, both day/date and catalog. I think the problem is that neither one has gone far back into their catalog to pull out all the stops/punches. What if we had the Jurassic Parks, Godfather, or Scarface show up on HD-DVD…….or from the BluRay side of things releasing some of their bigger titles, it could help reel people in more than before….again, the key to this war is releasing cheap enough hardware that will get the masses to buy into either format. I think that this is what was promised to Paramount and what they saw in the end to make their decision to go exclusive for 18 months. Why are so many Warner HD-DVD titles not yet on BD? Everyone will say J6P was the cause of that, yes, but with J6P releasing this Fall wouldn’t Warner want to usher some of their bigger HD-DVD time exclusive titles on BD? Unless they know something we don’t.
Combo Discs! Mistake or Excellent Idea?
One big mistake in my opinion with HD-DVD and many will either agree or disagree, the Combo disc. I find Combo discs as useless as the TotalHD disc that Warner was going to usher to the market this fall. This is 2007 going on 2008; we should be more worried about the new technology and not placing the old technology with the new. It sends such a horrible message to people on the fence. I have this disc I paid $20+ for, my format is dead now, but I can still play it on a SD-DVD player. Don’t get me wrong, the Combo disc is adored by some since they could take it to non-HD owners homes to watch the movie, but for us that buy a lot of these movies it ends up costing us $5-$6 more.
There are way too many dark horses in this battle that could help either side. Where does New Line stand in all of this? Is Weinstein defecting to Blu or are they going neutral? Will the rumors of Warner going exclusive with either Blu or HD-DVD in 2008 come true? Will Sony, FOX, and Disney throw their dollars together to retaliate against HD-DVD in the next month with the holiday season quickly approaching?
Now if those darn combo players would just drop in price already, it might help even more that are on the fence.
The Bottom Line
Folks, we are on the verge of either side winning here with one more critical move that could change the landscape. I think right now the ball is in Sony’s court, but I’m getting this inkling that the HD-DVD camp might have one more card up their sleeve that will send Sony placing the BluRay disc right next to the UMD, Betamax, Mini-disc player, etc. to name a few of Sony’s failed attempts at medium.
Yes, I own both, but my mind is so ever swinging more and more towards the Red camp. As a consumer, this past weekend I was able to add another HD-DVD player in my home for $200 with 5 free movies right off the bat + mail-in for another 5. Software makes a difference in which way people will go, but I see the hardware as being the key in getting people to join the fight and enjoy high quality hidef DVD’s at a low cost avenue. If you could get 2-4 value priced hidef DVD players for all of your TV’s at home, why wouldn’t you make a jump on it. With the prices on hardware getting so low, could we also start to see HD-DVD’s selling for under $19.99 price points at B&M, etc?
